Sarkozy seeks peace role in Africa from Financial Times
IMF dampens hopes of aid to Zimbabwe from Financial Times
Nigeria: Opposition gang up against gov’t from Africa News
Are Coups d’Etat Making a Comeback by Deo Lukyamuzi at African Arguments
Notes
News and Comment: South Africa does what China wants?
The BBC (see below) is reporting that the South African government may be bowing to pressure from China in its decision to block the Dalai Lama’s entry. If true (and what other reason could there be?), it is yet another signal that doing business with China carries its own conditions. And if South Africa cannot stand up to such pressures, what other African states can?
South Africa ‘blocks’ Dalai Lama
The Dalai Lama was due at a peace conference this weekThe South African government has defended its decision to deny entry to the Dalai Lama, amid charges it is bowing to pressure from China.
The Tibetan spiritual leader was due to attend a peace meeting in Johannesburg this week, along with fellow Nobel laureates Desmond Tutu and FW de Klerk.
But the authorities have not granted an entry visa, saying the invitation did not come from official channels.
Archbishop Tutu has threatened to pull out of the conference over the issue.
Speculation is rife in the local media that the government caved in to pressure from Beijing.
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Johnnie Carson, nominee for top Africa job at State Department
On Friday, Johnnie Carson became Obama’s official nominee for US Assistant Secretary for African Affairs at the State Department (via allAfrica.com). A number of observers have worried about how long it took him to name someone to this post, that it is an indication of Africa’s low priority in the Obama administration. But the choice itself demonstrates that Obama has decided to select someone with a long diplomatic history with the the continent (beginning as a Peace Corps volunteer in Tanzania and including ambassadorships to Kenya, Zimbabwe and Uganda).
What, exactly, does Carson’s nomination signal? At least one blogger has mused that Carson could be tough on Museveni in Uganda, perhaps promoting a pro-democracy agenda there. Yet another observer seems concerned that the choice signals a lack of intention on the part of the Obama administration to effectively deal with the crisis in the DRC.
Carson seems to me to be a strong choice. He has great experience with the continent and will likely be respected by most African leaders. But he is also a safe choice. It is unclear that the Obama administration is making any significant move to change US policy in the region. It would be nice, for instance, if we saw (as one of the observers mentioned above has opined) a special envoy for the crisis in the DRC.
Duncan Green on the IMF’s gloomy forecast
“IMF finally calls it – the world economy will shrink in 2009, and developing countries are hit harder than we thought
Every revision of global growth predictions has been heading towards zero, and now the IMF, in its report to the G20 finance ministers’ meeting last weekend, has taken the next step. It predicts the world economy will shrink in 2009, (by minus 0.5-1%) for the first time in 60 years. It’s pretty safe to assume that this won’t be the last downward move.
Take a look at the chart. Developing country growth is the only positive bar left (though well below the rate of population growth), but it was the largest downward revision in the forecast, marking the increasingly rapid contagion via finance, trade, remittances, commodity prices etc. In terms of the difference between growth in 08 and 09 only Japan takes a bigger hit than the developing world.”
News and comment: Madagascar and the African Union
The BBC and others have been reporting over the past day or so that the African Union has suspended Madagascar’s membership since the coup earlier this week. This echoes the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) decision not to recognize the new “interim” president, Andry Rajoelina.
Alistair Thomson, at Reuter’s Blogs, notes that between starting in 2005, there was a period of three years without coups in Africa, a trend that changed in 2008. I believe he is likely referring to a period bookended by the bloodless coup in Maurtiania in August of 2005 and the more recent coup there in August of 2008. However, the relevance of that stastic is probably undermined by attempted coups during this period (alleged attempts in Cote d’Ivoire and the Gambia, for instance) and major election fiascoes in places like Kenya and Zimbabwe. Nonetheless, it is clear that 2008 and 2009 (so far) have not been great years for Africa’s political systems.
The consequences of this? Alistair rightly mentions that the recent spate of political instability does not help Africa’s investment climate.
Will this change? Alistair also rightly notes that the recent financial crises are only likely to increase the pressures current governments face and the disatisfaction of opposition groups within the countries. And while the AU is clearly on the right side in condemning the coup, its current leader, Gaddafi, is unlikely to promote the kind of democratic stability in Africa most Western observers would like to see. And we can wonder about the future of African leadership on these issues. Mbeki, for all his faults, could at least be credited with having a vision for responsible African leadership on the continent, but he is no longer in a position to promote his African Renaissance.
News: Madagascar and World Bank study on poverty
Lova Rakotomalala at Global Voices tells us that the President of Madagascar has resigned.
Duncan Green has a favorable early review of the new World Bank study, The Moving Out of Poverty Study. More about the book can be found on the World Bank’s website. According to the website it is due to be released sometime this month and is available for pre-order.
Research Notes: commodity prices and impacts on Africa
SSRN’s email system delivered this week into my inbox a set of abstracts from the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series. This collection (all published in October 2008) speaks specifically to the potential impact of commodity price changes on African countries. These are critical issues for most African countries which are heavily dependent on the trade in commodities. But as a recent paper (2009) by Jacks, O’Rourke and Williamson highlights, commodity price volatility has not increased over time (they go back to the 1700s) and may even decrease with “world market integration”.
All of the SSRN papers are part of a larger program at the World Bank:
World Bank’s Development Dialogue on Values and Ethics: Africa Food and Oil Price Crises
One paper by Wodon et al. is central to the overall project and finds that not only may poverty rates increase in much of Africa, but that those who are already poor may find themselves even worse off than they already are. Another study by Parra and Wodon was even more pessimistic about the prospects for Ghana when looking at the potential multiplier effects of high energy prices. Of course, energy prices have fallen quite a bit since they conducted their study. But their study surprisingly resembles another one conducted by Arndt et al. in Mozambique and which appeared in the journal of Agricultural Economics last year.
Generally, the findings are not that surprising and they echo other recent research (such as that by their colleagues Ivanic and Martin). However, that consensus is not unchallenged. See, for instance, Aksoy and Isik-Dikmelik.
One minor problem I have is their claim that we can generalize from their West and Central Africa findings to conclude that Africa “as a whole” could have 30 million more poor people with a 50 percent increase in “selected food prices”. Even within their sub-regions variance was relatively high (a 1.8% increase in Ghana’s poverty headcount versus a 9.6% increase in Senegal).
Overall, the work of this group is a valuable empirical addition to our understanding of the links between commodity prices and poverty.
News stories I have been following
The impact of the finanicial crisis on Africa:
The Financial Times notes that Sub-Saharan African growth will continue, albeit at a much slower rate than in recent years. Recent news from southern Africa has been cautiously optimistic. And China plans to increase its investments in Africa. However, ActionAid reports that the crisis will cost African economies as much as US$49billion this year. And in Nigeria, some banks have asked employees to take early retirement, reportedly as a result of the crisis.
The Financial Times also reports that African states are trying to increase their voice in on-going G20 talks about the crisis.
The crisis in Madagascar:
Global Voices has a round-up of news about what appears to be a very fluid situation.
Michael Nelson 