Easterly in Ghana

Bill Easterly has been spending some time in Ghana.  In one post on his blog he extolls the virtues of the private sector at keeping lavatories clean. (However, Easterly does seem to fine some signs that aid can work in his visit to a Hunger Project site.) Apparently, a private firm — that also sells cleaning products — has taken on bathroom cleaning contracts in restaurants.  Easterly doesn’t seem to think much of the restaurant he was at. But I do hope he finds some great Ghanaian food.  If he has questions about what can be great, I suggest he take a look at Fran Osseo-Asare’s BetumiBlog.

News and Comment: Paris, China, Kabila, Zuma, and ECOWAS.

The BBC reports that the liberation of Paris in 1944 was carefully orchestrated to be “whites only”.  Apparently, this was an American idea. So when De Gaulle wanted to have a French division lead the liberation, he had to remove the West African soldiers (which reportedly formed 65% of Free French Forces) from the division and even had to rely on some Spanish soldiers to have adequate numbers.

China is reducing its investments in Africa, the New York Times reported last week.  But this news should not be exaggerated.  Deals are still being made and it is unlikely that China will withdraw that much from Africa. Among other activities during the last couple of weeks, Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE increased its ties with Ghana, Nigeria and China signed a pact for cooperation with satellites, brought a trade delegation to Cote d’Ivoire, and promised to build a malaria research center in Cameroon. So, while it is true that China–like just about everywhere else in the world–may be reducing its demand for certain African commodities, it is not at all the case that China will withdraw.

The New York Times also published an interesting portrait of DRC President Joseph Kabila. There was a time when people hoped that his Western-educated background would allow for new and enlightened rule of the DRC. Unfortunately, the DRC remains as troubled as ever.

South African prosecutors have apparently dropped charges against Jacob Zuma.  This should strengthen his hand considerably in the upcoming election. It may also help him if other parties are being intimidated from participating, as the BBC reports.

One random piece of news: Apparently there was a bomb threat at the Italian embassy in Ghana. I would be interested to know more about this if anyone has a clear idea.

And finally, ECOWAS proves it is still alive and attempts to insert its voice in the on-going crisis in Guinea Bissau (BBC: Guinea-Bissau army ‘beats ex-PM’; Reuters: UN urges international help for Guinea-Bissau polls) . ECOWAS has issued a statement expressing its concern about human rights violations there.

News and Comment: the G20 and Africa Part 2

The G20 has a lot of issues on its plate and at the top of the list, obviously, is the on-going financial crisis.  I have already commented on the problems African countries face in getting their voices heard. On that point, Africa may have an ally in Pope Benedict who, recently returned from his Africa travels, noted the problems of adequate representation from those “who suffer most from the harmful effects of a crisis for which they do not bear responsibility”. The Pope suggests states rely on the UN and associated institutions. Jeffrey Sachs has also jumped on this bandwagon, noting that while South Africa will be present “South Africa by itself represents South Africa”.  And we all know that South Africa is not a “typical” African country (if there is such a thing).

On the point of South Africa, it might be useful to remember that President Motlanthe himself may not be in the strongest position to represent his country’s interests, given all the recent upheaval within the South African political system and the temporary nature of his position as President.

NGOs, such as Oxfam, are trying to use their influence to encourage the G20 to commit to aiding Africa as it deals with the crisis. Duncan Green, head of research for Oxfam, highlights their main requests of the G20 in a recent blog post. He comments as well on a leaked copy of a G20 communique, obtained by the Financial Times.  Indeed, the way these conferences usually go, it is likely that at least some of the major decisions have already been negotiated ahead of time. Which leaves one to wonder whether adding an African voice at this point could make a difference.

The World Bank has published figures (reported on BBC News) that somewhat echo the gloomy global economic forecasts of the IMF and OECD.

The forecast predicts that developing countries will need $1.3tn in external financing to repay debt and cover balance of payments problems, and may fall short.

The idea that African countries, in particular, could be major losers in this crisis has been underscored by a number of analysts and commentators including Egypt’s finance minister, Oxfam’s Duncan Green (commenting on the case of Zambia), and Kofi Anan (who argues that the crisis “hits Africa twice”).

Other G20 news:

Apparently, protestors see the G20 meeting as an opportunity to demonstrate their unhappiness with a wide range of global issues, from the financial crisis to the “siege of Gaza” to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  While I understand their frustrations with global leadership on these matters, I don’t think it helps their cause to get into fights with the British police.  Apparently, these frustrations are being vented worldwide.

China is trying to exhibit its leadership potential as well.  This has included lobbying for a new “super-sovereign reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar”, the provision of advice to rich countries, and lobbying to stop states from moving towards trade and investment protectionism.

The Chinese are not the only ones worried about protectionism. Pascal Lamy, head of the WTO, has warned that moves towards protectionism may further impact the already troubled Doha round of trade negotiations.

News and Comment: last weekend of March roundup

Spanish Court Weighs Inquiry on Torture for 6 Bush-Era Officials from the NY Times.  Judge Baltasar Garzon is at it again. He was the Spanish judge who ordered the arrrest of former Chilean dictator Pinochet. He also has looked into the activities of Basque separatists and the executions of the Franco era.  This time, due to the fact that some Spanish citizens or residents were detained at Gauntanamo, Spain can claim some jurisdiction.  It will be interesting to see how far this goes.

Staying in Touch Internationally, on the Cheap from the NY Times. Includes some great ideas for using cell phones while traveling internationally.  One option it mentions is Google Voice, which has taken over from Grand Central (a service I signed up for early on but never followed through on).  This could really make things easy for those of us who travel abroad.

The African Export-Import Bank talks up the potential benefits of South-South trade. But Botswana’s Minister of Finance and Development Planning complains about how Africa is “marginalised and patronised” during the current financial crisis.

Finally, Zimbabwe retains its pariah status as the US continues sanctions. It may not help that Mugabe remains n power and continues to act friendly towards exiled former Ethiopian dictator Mengistu.

 


News and Comment: The G20 and Africa

In my Africa in World Politics class this week, I’ve been talking about the role of African states in global economic governance. This has been a focus of my own research, stressing the important roles coalitions can play, but how those roles are strongly influenced by the institutional and strategic environments that states operate in.  At the World Bank or IMF, African coalitions tend to have no impact due at least partly to the power and voting structure of those institutions. At the WTO, coalitions have had major impacts in negotiations (the Cairns Group in the Uruguay Round, the “Cotton Four” group of African countries more recently).

Right now many of the important issues regarding our global economy are being debated by a forum of industrialized and emerging market countries, the G20. Their meeting in London next month, appropriately is targeted at dealing with the current financial crisis and its spillover effects.There is one African state member of that group, South Africa, and other African states are expected to be present in less formal roles as well.

There is some hope that African issues will have a place on the agenda at the G20 meeting. But as Kofi Annan argues in a guest column on AllAfrica.com, Africa needs to have more systematic representation at the G20 if the G20 is going to be an important decision-making forum. Also, African states need to continue their hard lobbying for greater voice at the IMF and World Bank, especially given the important role the IMF plays in developing the norms of the global financial system.  My suggestion would be that African states concentrate on encouraging decision-making rules that favor coalitional behavior.  If the lessons of the WTO tell us anything, it is that some institutional settings provide greater scope for developing country influence than others.


See also: Daniel Bradlow’s post at Opinio Juris

News and Comment: South Africa does what China wants?

The BBC (see below) is reporting that the South African government may be bowing to pressure from China in its decision to block the Dalai Lama’s entry. If true (and what other reason could there be?), it is yet another signal that doing business with China carries its own conditions.  And if South Africa cannot stand up to such pressures, what other African states can?

clipped from news.bbc.co.uk

South Africa ‘blocks’ Dalai Lama

Dalai Lama

The Dalai Lama was due at a peace conference this week

The South African government has defended its decision to deny entry to the Dalai Lama, amid charges it is bowing to pressure from China.

The Tibetan spiritual leader was due to attend a peace meeting in Johannesburg this week, along with fellow Nobel laureates Desmond Tutu and FW de Klerk.

But the authorities have not granted an entry visa, saying the invitation did not come from official channels.

Archbishop Tutu has threatened to pull out of the conference over the issue.

Speculation is rife in the local media that the government caved in to pressure from Beijing.

blog it

Johnnie Carson, nominee for top Africa job at State Department

On Friday, Johnnie Carson became Obama’s official nominee for US Assistant Secretary for African Affairs at the State Department (via allAfrica.com). A number of observers have worried about how long it took him to name someone to this post, that it is an indication of Africa’s low priority in the Obama administration.  But the choice itself demonstrates that Obama has decided to select someone with a long diplomatic history with the the continent (beginning as a Peace Corps volunteer in Tanzania and including ambassadorships to Kenya, Zimbabwe and Uganda).

What, exactly, does Carson’s nomination signal?  At least one blogger has mused that Carson could be tough on Museveni in Uganda, perhaps promoting a pro-democracy agenda there.  Yet another observer seems concerned that the choice signals a lack of intention on the part of the Obama administration to effectively deal with the crisis in the DRC.

Carson seems to me to be a strong choice. He has great experience with the continent and will likely be respected by most African leaders.  But he is also a safe choice.  It is unclear that the Obama administration is making any significant move to change US policy in the region. It would be nice, for instance, if we saw (as one of the observers mentioned above has opined) a special envoy for the crisis in the DRC.

Duncan Green on the IMF’s gloomy forecast

“IMF finally calls it – the world economy will shrink in 2009, and developing countries are hit harder than we thought

Every revision of global growth predictions has been heading towards zero, and now the IMF, in its report to the G20 finance ministers’ meeting last weekend, has taken the next step. It predicts the world economy will shrink in 2009, (by minus 0.5-1%) for the first time in 60 years. It’s pretty safe to assume that this won’t be the last downward move.

Take a look at the chart. Developing country growth is the only positive bar left (though well below the rate of population growth), but it was the largest downward revision in the forecast, marking the increasingly rapid contagion via finance, trade, remittances, commodity prices etc. In terms of the difference between growth in 08 and 09 only Japan takes a bigger hit than the developing world.”

From Poverty to Power by Duncan Green » Blog Archive » IMF finally calls it – the world economy will shrink in 2009, and developing countries are hit harder than we thought.