Yao Ming protecting elephants, sister cities, Angola’s elections and more news on “China and Africa”

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Yao Ming and the Elephants
I don’t know much about the roles Chinese celebrities play in Chinese politics, but I think it may be significant both for China and Africa that Yao Ming has decided to take up an environmental cause. Working with San Francisco-based WildAid, he is part of a campaign to educate Chinese consumers about the costs of the ivory trade (CS Monitor, FP).

China wants more Sister Cities in Africa
Vice Premier Li Keqiang, as part of the first Forum on China-Africa Local Government Cooperation, announced this new policy objective in Nairobi. On the one hand, he mentioned in his remarks that this would be good for the cities to learn from each other (about common difficulties like pollution and traffic). But on the other hand, he also seemed to signal a business opportunity: “if Shanghai and Nairobi were sister cities we could really make major progress in city construction” (Xinhua).

Angola’s elections and China
This is election week in Angola (the legislative elections, which also determine the presidency, take place August 31st). There is no denying that China has played an important role in Angola’s post-civil war reconstruction over the last decade. But while many Angolans may be happy with the positive roles China plays in the country and its economy, there have been attacks as well. First, not all of China’s business ventures there have been a success. Consider the recent debate about a major residential development project which has high vacancy rates (Global Voices). Indeed, for all the cheap cell phones, new roads, and infrastructure that is helping transform the country, there is also a growing set of concerns about misconceived construction ventures and shoddy construction. Second, there have been continuing concerns about Chinese immigration. A very high profile crackdown on “Chinese gangsters” took place this week (Business Insider). Many of their victims, apparently, were Chinese living in Angola, or who they brought to Angola as prostitutes. Indeed, the story in People’s Daily Online suggested the primary purpose was to protect Chinese nationals abroad. I haven’t seen any explicit connections between this story and the election, but I can imagine that some in the opposition are considering it.

I don’t think that “China” will play an explicit role in determining this election’s outcome. Many other factors determine the concerns of the opposition: continuing poverty, the legacies of the civil war, problems with the government’s record on civil and political rights. But it is clear that continued economic success is what has enabled the current government to stay in power and that China has played a major role in that success.

Other News On “China and Africa”
As we continue to get mixed data about the state of China’s economy and prospects for future growth, many are wondering what kinds of impacts this might have on economic growth in Africa. This is the question in Barbara Njau’s piece at African Arguments.

Deborah Brautigam identifies recent research by Yoon Jung Park on African attitudes towards Chinese immigrants (it varies across countries, is the argument).

Course Planning for Students of Foreign Policy: Walt’s advice

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Top ten things that would-be foreign policy wonks should study | Stephen M. Walt.

I’m not convinced that “wonk” is what most students aspire to. But Walt has some decent advice on what kinds of classes to take for those interested in careers in foreign affairs more generally.

#2: Statistics!  I keep telling my students to take a statistics or “methods” course. Glad to see this supported here.

#5: International Law: Maybe I should be teaching it more often?

I also like #10: Ethics. Like he says, not the kind of thing you can easily pick-up in a course. However, there are some courses that might help force you to think about these issues. In our department, the political theory courses would be a good place to look.

But I am on sabbatical this fall, so that may be all the course advice I will give!

Africa Notes: President Banda, changing the game

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Joyce Banda’s ascension to the presidency of Malawi has been a game changer for that nation, and could be for Africa as well.

Domestic Game Changer
Politically, up until President Mutharika’s death, it seemed unlikely that Joyce Banda would wield major influence in that country, despite her status as his Vice President. Indeed, the former President Mutharika had seen Banda, his VP, expelled from his party in 2010 (Reuters). Mutharika, however, was facing growing opposition just prior to his death. His disputes with Western donors had led to reduced aid for the country. In an obituary, The Guardian noted that he went “from one of the most respected African leaders to a repressive despot in just two years” (The Guardian). Those frustrations are evident in Lucius Banda’s single “Life”. (h/t habanahaba).

Economically and politically, Malawi seemed headed for disaster.

Enter, Banda.

President Joyce Banda demonstrated she is different from the start. She fired an unpopular police commander and the foreign minister (brother of the former President), reshuffled the cabinet, and made a number of other administrative changes throughout the government (Africa Arguments, Reuters). She is also beginning to intervene in monetary policy, dropping the currency’s peg to the dollar (ICTSD). This may improve export performance.

She–apparently–has also come out in favor of removing bans on homosexuality in that country (though there is some confusion about the extent of this: Kim Dionne)

Donors have returned (Reuters). This may soon include a loan by the IMF as well (African Arguments).

Headlines immediately showed the hope both Malawians and many in the international community have felt:

This is a small, landlocked country, with a population of 15.4 million people, and a gross national per capita income of $330 (BBC). But Banda appears as principled and strong. And it appears that she has changed the situation for that country… for now. As Keith Somerville writes, Banda has brought “Malawi back from the brink.”

Game Changer for Africa
At the continental level, President Banda may prove to be a game changer as well, though her influence will be limited by Malawi’s relatively small stature. Mostly, she has an opportunity to shine as a leader with unique moral authority on the continent. This could stem from…

  • Her example as a woman leader and activist; and
  • Her approach to human and political rights.

The two themes the international media have paid most attention to are her stance on homosexuality and her apparent support for the ICC’s pursuit of al-Bashir. Unfortunately, the media may be getting both of these stories wrong. If she is taking moral stances on these issues, the motivations are muddied, at a minimum, by her clear need to appeal to Western donors for aid.

As has been widely reported, President Banda asked the African Union to prevent Bashir from taking part (Reuters). Now, the real question is her motivation. Unfortunately, any vision we might have of Banda as a visionary Western-style liberal leader may need to be qualified. There are at least two reasons beyond a concern for ethic and human rights for Banda’s decision here. Indeed, she does not clearly say anything about Bashir’s culpability and the moral or even legal implications of allowing him to attend a summit in Malawi.

  • It is about money (I). Malawi’s stated appeal to the AU was based on concerns about donors. The concern seems to be that allowing Bashir would look bad to donors which have only just started to give money again to Malawi. (It is notable too that some donors have suggested that anti-gay policies in Africa could be a reason to suspend or reduce aid.)
  • It is about money (II). Even before she was President, Banda was apparently unhappy with the idea that Malawi would be hosting the summit. As Rebecca Chimjeka reports, when Banda was still the VP she was opposed due to the costs of hosting a summit and the lack of assurances that there would be financial support from the AU or other African leaders. She did eventually receive the assurance, but one can wonder whether she thought that support adequate.

I am not sure what her long-term legacy will be, but Banda does seem to have an opportunity to wield Mandela-like moral authority in Malawi and across the continent. To do that, however, will require an even clearer articulation of a vision for her country and Africa. In the meantime, no one can argue that she has changed her own country’s economic and political situation… for now.

Africa Notes: ECOWAS acts in aftermath of coups

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Regional cooperation in West Africa is such a unique thing. Where else do you see cooperation on economic matters appear to be so much more difficult that you switch to cooperating on security? Wasn’t the EU built on precisely the opposite logic?

BBC News – Ecowas to send troops after Mali, Guinea-Bissau coups.

Anyway, BBC (and others) are reporting what we have known would likely happen: ECOWAS is sending troops to deal with the aftermath of coups in Mali and Guinea-Bissau. Doing this in Mali makes a lot of sense to me. The situation is such a mess (political struggles over both regime transition and secession). And we can hope, based on its past, that Mali could return to a peaceful and democratic path once these issues get sorted. Not that this will be easy!

But I wonder if Guinea-Bissau might be a harder case. On the one hand, G-B’s problems are a little more straightforward: this is “just” a coup. But on the other hand, the prospects for a peaceful and democratic path are really pretty bad here. No president has ever finished their term in office. And, as Lesley Anne Warner notes, G-B is indeed quite coup-prone. The country has had twice as many coup incidents (10, including failed and alleged plots) as any other country in Africa since 2000. And that doesn’t even include the assassination of President Vieira in 2009! Reuters has a nice timeline of just a few of the events in their violent past.

All of that leads me to wonder: how will ECOWAS gauge success here? What is the exit strategy? Or are West African leaders trying to send some sort of hard signal to the elites in G-B that business-as-usual (coups every few years) cannot be tolerated? I just don’t quite know at this point.

By the way, in case you are wondering whether Africa has gone “coup-crazy” this year, Jay Ulfelder has a nice analysis that shows that, statistically, we are still within the norm (Dart-Throwing Chimp).